A quantitative risk metric to support individual sanitary measure reviews in international trade.

In order for the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) to make an equivalence determination for a foreign meat, poultry or egg products inspection procedure that differs from FSIS inspection procedures (an Individual Sanitary Measure or ISM), a country must demonstrate objectively that its food safety inspection system provides the same level of public health protection as the FSIS inspection system. To evaluate microbiological testing data that such countries may submit to this end, we present a possible risk metric to inform FSIS's assessment of whether products produced under an alternative inspection system in another country pose no greater consumer risk of foodborne illness than products produced under FSIS inspection. This metric requires evaluation of prevalence estimates of pathogen occurrence in products for the foreign country and the U.S. and determining what constitutes an unacceptable deviance of another country's prevalence from the U.S. prevalence, i.e., the margin of equivalence. We define the margin of equivalence as a multiple of the standard error of the U.S. prevalence estimate. Minimizing the margin of equivalence ensures the maximum public health protection for U.S. consumers, but an optimum choice must also avoid undue burden for quantitative data from alternative inspection systems in the foreign country. Across a wide range of U.S. prevalence levels and sample sizes, we determine margin of equivalence values that provide high confidence in conclusions as to whether or not the country's product poses no greater risk of foodborne illness from microbiological pathogens. These margins of equivalence can be used to inform FSIS's equivalence determination for an ISM request from a foreign country. Illustrative examples are used to support this definition of margin of equivalence. This approach is consistent with the World Trade Organization's concept of risk equivalence and is transparent and practical to apply in situations when FSIS makes an equivalence determination for an ISM requested by a foreign country.

A Comparative Study of Health Disparities in Cervical Cancer Mortality Rates Through Time Between Black and Caucasian Women in Alabama and the US.

Background: The main purpose of this study was to assess changes in cervical cancer mortality rates through time between Black and Caucasian women residing in Alabama and the US. Methods: Alabama cervical cancer mortality rates (MR), percentage differences, percentage changes and annual percentage changes for trends were compared with the US baseline and target rates. The US Baseline data and target objectives of utilization of cervical cancer screening and MR were obtained from Healthy People 2020. The cervical cancer behavioral risk factors and utilization of screening tests data were obtained from CDC's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The cervical cancer MR data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER). The analysis was done using SEER*Stat and Linear Trendlines analysis. Results: Although Blacks in Alabama had higher cervical cancer MR through times, a decreasing trend was noted for both races. However, in Alabama, there is no significant change in Blacks aged 65 years and older in cervical cancer MR, despite a high screening rate compared to Whites. In contrast, between 2002 and 2012, Whites in Alabama and the US made a significant progress toward the Healthy People 2020 goal. Conclusions: In Alabama, there exists cervical cancer MR disparity in Blacks despite the higher rates of screening for cervical cancer as would otherwise be expected. The state has not yet achieved the Healthy People 2020 goal. Public health officials should monitor progress toward reduction and/or elimination of these disparities by focusing in a follow up of screening.

Effects of consumption of whole grape powder on basal NF-κB signaling and inflammatory cytokine secretion in a mouse model of inflammation.

Dietary consumption of polyphenol-rich fruits, such as grapes, may reduce inflammation and potentially prevent diseases linked to inflammation. Here, we used a genetically engineered murine model to measure Nuclear Factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB) activity and pro-inflammatory cytokine secretion to test the hypothesis that oral consumption of whole grape formulation reduces inflammatory signaling in the body. NF-κB luciferase reporter mice were divided into two groups, one which was fed an experimental diet formulated with 4% (w/w) whole grape powder (WGP) or another which was fed a control diet formulated with 3.6% glucose/fructose (w/w) combination. Simulated inflammation was induced in the mice by intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS). In vivo imaging was used to determine the effect of each diet on NF-κB activity. We found that there were no significant differences in weight gain between the WGP and control diet groups. However, there was a statistically significant (p<0.0001) difference in the progression of basal levels of NF-κB signaling between mice fed on control or WGP diet. There were no significant differences in NF-κB reporter indices between WGP- and control-diet groups after either acute or repeated inflammatory challenge. However, terminal blood collection revealed significantly (p<0.01) lower serum concentrations of the inflammatory cytokines Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Tumor Necrosis Factor alpha (TNFα) only among WGP diet mice subjected to acute inflammatory challenge. Overall, these data suggest that while diets supplemented with WGP may suppress steady-state low levels of inflammatory signaling, such a supplementation may not alleviate exogenously induced massive NF-κB activation.

Assessing the Key Attributes of Low Utilization of Mammography Screening and Breast-self Exam among African-American Women.

PURPOSE: African-American (AA) women living in four Black Belt Counties (BBC) of Alabama; consisting of Barbour, Macon, Green and Wilcox are known to have lower mammogram utilization and breast self-exam rates when compared to their white female counterparts. The influence of socioeconomic and demographic factors on these disparities has not been clearly defined so far. Our study was designed to determine whether these observed disparities can be predicted with the socioeconomic and other demographic attributes. METHODS: Health Disparity Questionnaires data (n = 516) for BBC of Alabama was analyzed using a logistic regression model to examine the association of breast cancer screening rates and breast self-exam with income, the level of education, family doctor, type of health insurance, obesity, and age. RESULTS: Income, education, family doctor, age and health insurance were independent predictors for the low utilization rate of mammography and breast self-exam (BSE). CONCLUSION: Improving socioeconomic conditions such as level of education and availability of health care are essential to increase the rates of breast cancer screening test and breast self-exam in the BBC of Alabama.

Quantitative risk assessment of entry of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia through live cattle imported from northwestern Ethiopia.

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a highly contagious bacterial disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies mycoides small colony (SC) bovine biotype (MmmSC). It has been eradicated from many countries; however, the disease persists in many parts of Africa and Asia. CBPP is one of the major trade-restricting diseases of cattle in Ethiopia. In this quantitative risk assessment the OIE concept of zoning was adopted to assess the entry of CBPP into an importing country when up to 280,000 live cattle are exported every year from the northwestern proposed disease free zone (DFZ) of Ethiopia. To estimate the level of risk, a six-tiered risk pathway (scenario tree) was developed, evidences collected and equations generated. The probability of occurrence of the hazard at each node was modelled as a probability distribution using Monte Carlo simulation (@RISK software) at 10,000 iterations to account for uncertainty and variability. The uncertainty and variability of data points surrounding the risk estimate were further quantified by sensitivity analysis. In this study a single animal destined for export from the northwestern DFZ of Ethiopia has a CBPP infection probability of 4.76×10(-6) (95% CI=7.25×10(-8) 1.92×10(-5)). The probability that at least one infected animal enters an importing country in one year is 0.53 (90% CI=0.042-0.97). The expected number of CBPP infected animals exported any given year is 1.28 (95% CI=0.021-5.42). According to the risk estimate, an average of 2.73×10(6) animals (90% CI=10,674-5.9×10(6)) must be exported to get the first infected case. By this account it would, on average, take 10.15 years (90% CI=0.24-23.18) for the first infected animal to be included in the consignment. Sensitivity analysis revealed that prevalence and vaccination had the highest impact on the uncertainty and variability of the overall risk.

Effect of Malaria and Geohelminth Infection on Birth Outcomes in Kumasi, Ghana.

AIM: In 2005, the Ghana Health Service mandated malaria and helminths chemoprophylaxis during antenatal care visits. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of malaria and helminth infections and their relationship with adverse birth outcomes (low birth weight, stillbirth, and preterm) following the implementation of these treatments. STUDY DESIGN: A quantitative cross-sectional study. METHOD: The study was conducted on 630 women presenting for delivery in the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital and the Manhyia District Hospital from July to November 2011. Socio-demographic information and medical and obstetric history were collected. Laboratory analyses for the presence of malaria and helminths were performed. Association of malaria and helminths with birth outcomes was assessed using logistic regression to obtain odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: The prevalence of malaria, helminths and adverse birth outcomes was 9.0%, 5.0% and 22.2%, respectively. Compared with women who received malaria prophylaxis, women without malaria prophylaxis were two times more likely to have malaria infection (aOR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.06-4.17). Women who were not screened for helminths were twice as likely to be infected with helminths (aOR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.15-5.12) than women who were screened for helminths. For women infected with hookworm or Schistosoma mansoni, the odds of having an adverse birth outcome (aOR = 3.9; 95% CI = 1.09-14.20) and stillbirth (aOR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.21-36.38) were greater than for women who were not infected. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of malaria, helminths and adverse birth outcomes was lower than previously reported 9.0% vs. 36.3, 5.0% vs. 25.7 and 22.2% vs. 44.6, respectively. Helminth but not malaria infection was found to be significantly associated with adverse birth outcomes.

Antenatal care attendance, a surrogate for pregnancy outcome? The case of Kumasi, Ghana.

Antenatal care (ANC) has been shown to influence infant and maternal outcomes. WHO recommends 4 ANC visits for uncomplicated pregnancies. However, pregnant women in Ghana are required to attend 8-13 antenatal visits. We investigated the association of ANC attendance with adverse pregnancy outcomes (defined as low infant birth weight, stillbirth, preterm delivery or small for gestational age). A quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted on 629 women, age 19-48 years who presented for delivery at two selected public hospitals and 16 traditional birth attendants from July to November 2011. Socio-demographic and antenatal information were collected using a structured questionnaire. ANC attendance, medical and obstetric/gynecological history were abstracted from maternal antenatal records. Data were analyzed using Chi square and logistic regression. Twenty-two percent of the women experienced an adverse outcome. Eleven percent of the women attended <4 ANC visits. In an unadjusted model, these women had an increased likelihood of experiencing an adverse outcome (OR 2.27; 95% CI 1.30-3.94; p = 0.0038). High parity (>5 children) was also associated with adverse birth outcomes. Women screened for syphilis or use of insecticide-treated bed nets had a 40 and 36% (p = 0.0447 and p = 0.0293) reduced likelihood of experiencing an adverse pregnancy outcome respectively. After adjusting for confounders, attending <4 antenatal visits was associated with adverse pregnancy outcome compared with ≥4 ANC visits (Adjusted OR 2.55; 95% CI 1.16-5.63; p = 0.0202). Attending <4 antenatal visits and high parity were associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes for uncomplicated pregnancies.

Determinants of access to antenatal care and birth outcomes in Kumasi, Ghana.

This study aimed to investigate factors that influence antenatal care utilization and their association with adverse pregnancy outcomes (defined as low birth weight, stillbirth, preterm delivery or small for gestational age) among pregnant women in Kumasi. A quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted of 643 women aged 19-48 years who presented for delivery at selected public hospitals and private traditional birth attendants from July-November 2011. Participants' information and factors influencing antenatal attendance were collected using a structured questionnaire and antenatal records. Associations between these factors and adverse pregnancy outcomes were assessed using chi-square and logistic regression. Nineteen percent of the women experienced an adverse pregnancy outcome. For 49% of the women, cost influenced their antenatal attendance. Cost was associated with increased likelihood of a woman experiencing an adverse outcome (adjusted OR=2.15; 95% CI=1.16-3.99; p=0.016). Also, women with >5 births had an increased likelihood of an adverse outcome compared with women with single deliveries (adjusted OR=3.77; 95% CI=1.50-9.53; p=0.005). The prevalence of adverse outcomes was lower than previously reported (44.6 versus 19%). Cost and distance were associated with adverse outcomes after adjusting for confounders. Cost and distance could be minimized through a wider application of the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme.

Psychosocial factors as predictors of HIV/AIDS risky behaviors among people living with HIV/AIDS.

Infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is still rising globally. In order to develop effective HIV/AIDS risky behavior reduction intervention strategies and to further decrease the spread of HIV/AIDS, it is important to assess the prevalence of psychosocial problems and HIV/AIDS risky behaviors in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between psychosocial variables and HIV/AIDS risky behaviors among PLWHA. A total of 341 questionnaires were distributed and 326 were fully completed and returned, 96% response rate. The relationships between the identified psychosocial and HIV/AIDS risky behaviors among PLWHA were analyzed using The Moment Structures software version 17.0 (SPSS Inc.) The results indicate that psychosocial health problems were significant predictors of HIV/AIDS risky behaviors in PLWA. Further cross-disciplinary research that addresses the manner in which psychosocial problems and HIV/AIDS risky behaviors interact with each other among PLWHA is needed.

The Association between Interrelationships and Linkages of Knowledge about HIV/AIDS and its Related Risky Behaviors in People Living with HIV/AIDS.

The relationship between knowledge about HIV/AIDS and its associated risky behaviors is complex and has not been sufficiently explored. It is especially important to look at some of the aspects of this relationship among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in order to develop effective intervention strategies to reduce HIV/AIDS risky behaviors. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between knowledge about HIV/AIDS and its risky behaviors among PLWHA. METHODS: Risk taking behavior among the participants was measured as the number of all risky behaviors before and after the knowledge of their HIV/AIDS positive status. Knowledge was measured by the extent to which participants answered the HIV/AIDS related questions. The relationships between the identified HIV/AIDS risky behaviors and the knowledge among PLWHA were analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling. RESULTS: 341 questionnaires were administered and 326 (96%) were completed and returned from PLWHA clients of HIV/AIDS outreach facility in Alabama. Analysis revealed that, knowledge of HIV/AIDS, and knowledge of a properly used condom in preventing the infection through sexual activity were positively related with knowledge of where to get tested for HIV/AIDS. Using drugs before sex was significantly related with having sex with prostitutes (total effects' standardized regression coefficient (TESRC)=0.29, p<0.001). Sharing the same syringe or needle with another person or other people to inject oneself was strongly related with number of sexual partners within one year (TESRC=0.25, p<0.001), and sex with injecting drug users (TESRC=0.45, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: A deeper understanding of HIV/AIDS and some of its transmission pathways appears to be very effective in practicing the taking of preventive measures such as using condoms or getting tested for HIV. Increasing access to HIV/AIDS education could therefore be very useful in providing further gains in HIV/AIDS awareness among PLWHA.

The association between religious affiliation and frequency of attendance at religious services on HIV risky behaviors among people living with HIV/AIDS.

The purpose of this study was to examine if religious affiliation and frequency of attendance at religious services were associated with HIV risky behaviors among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). The participants are HIV positive clients of a community based HIV/AIDS outreach facility (CBHAOF) located in Montgomery, Alabama, USA. The participants completed the questionnaire during their medical visits to the clinic at their own convenience and that of the facility's staff. A total of 341 questionnaires were distributed to PLWHA and 326 (96%) were fully completed and returned. There were more male than female participants (56 versus 42%). The majority of the respondents (67%) were between 30 and 49 years of age. Nearly two thirds of the participants (64%) were African Americans whilst 36% were other races combined (White = 29%, Hispanic = 3% and other races = 4%). A chi-square test was used to examine the association between selected variables. Findings show substantial variations of selected HIV risky behaviors according to religious affiliation and frequency of attendance at religious services (p < 0.05). The study findings suggest the importance of religious affiliation and frequency of attendance at religious services in reducing HIV risky behaviors among PLWHA. The findings have implications for HIV/AIDS prevention and we recommend that it is important to incorporate Faith-based organizations in the global fight against HIV/AIDS.

The Role of Computational Epidemiology and Risk Analysis in the Fight Against HIV/AIDS.

Substantial progress in the understanding of HIV and CD4 cell dynamics using computational models undergirded by sound epidemiologic and mathematical principles has been achieved. The early stages of the applications of these models were based on relatively simple mathematical models that considered the body as a one-compartment system. In spite of these models attractiveness due to the experimental and/or mathematical standpoints, the underlying simplification neglected a lot of important factors affecting the population dynamics both on macro (human) and micro (cellular) population levels. This simplification also affected the kinetics linked to the immunology, infection and chemotherapy dynamics throughout the host. Epidemiologic research involves the study of a complex set of host, environmental and causative agent factors as they interact to impact health and diseases in any given population whether biotic or abiotic. This leads in generating large data sets which require the use of powerful computational methods for studying these large and complex models by means of computational epidemiologic methods. Another dimension of a great challenging problem to public health decision makers is that of emerging diseases, as they have to face and deal with a lot of uncertainty at the early stages of disease outbreaks. However, at this juncture, epidemiologic problem-solving and decision-making often proceeds in the face of uncertainties and limited information. One methodology to address these types of shortcomings is the application of risk analysis. Risk analysis is a process for decision making under uncertainty that consists of three fundamental tasks: risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. Excitingly, the prospective role that computational models and risk analysis may possibly play in the advancement of the theoretical understanding of disease processes and the identification of specific intervention strategies holds the potential to impact and save human lives.

A quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sex among HIV-seropositive men.

The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sexual practices among HIV-seropositive men. A knowledgebase was developed by reviewing different published sources. The data were collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selected journals, and reports. The risk pathway scenario tree was developed based on a comprehensive review of published literature. The variables are organized into nine major parameter categories. Monte Carlo simulations for the quantitative risk assessment of HIV/AIDS transmission was executed with the software @Risk 4.0 (Palisade Corporation). Results show that the value for the likelihood of unprotected sex due to having less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and negative attitude toward condom use and safer sex ranged from 1.24 × 10(-5) to 8.47 × 10(-4) with the mean and standard deviation of 1.83 × 10(-4) and 8.63 × 10(-5), respectively. The likelihood of unprotected sex due to having greater anger-hostility, anxiety, less satisfied with aspects of life, and greater depressive symptoms ranged from 2.76 × 10(-9) to 5.34 × 10(-7) with the mean and standard deviation of 5.23 × 10(-8) and 3.58 × 10(-8), respectively. The findings suggest that HIV/AIDS research and intervention programs must be focused on behavior, and the broader setting within which individual risky behaviors occur.

Epidemiology of influenza A 2009 H1N1 virus pandemic in the U.S.

A novel influenza, Influenza A 2009 H1N1 virus outbreak, emerged in mid-April 2009, and by December 2009, spread across the world. This epidemiologic analysis uses the epidemiologic problem oriented approach to gather information for, and develop a quantitative risk assessment model that evaluates the likelihood of an influenza outbreak in the U.S., utilizing weekly incidence rates (WIR) and case fatality rates (CFR) stratified by age and the 10 U.S. regions. In addition ArcGIS was used to show variability regarding morbidity rate and WIR. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Emerging Infections Program and applying Monte Carlo simulations with @Risk software, the analysis revealed morbidity to be highest in region 8 (1.27×10-2) and lowest in region 2 (0.13×10-2). Heat map results revealed WIR were higher in younger children, for all regions. Case fatality rates were 10 times greater in younger people than in older people and children. Using these different temporal-spatial epidemiologic methods can help decision-makers identify high-risk population clusters and help in prevention and control of pandemics.

Psychosocial responses associated with perceived risk of cancer in an African-American community.

This epidemiologic health survey study examined the association between health risk perceptions and psychosocial factors in 145 African Americans in East Montgomery, Alabama. The survey gathered information on demographics, population dynamics, health risk perceptions, and coping behaviors. Psychosocial variables measured were worries, concern, stress, and trauma associated with perceived risk of cancer. Results indicated that women were more concerned about the environmental health risks in their community than men. Compared to men, women were highly concerned about the economic effect of perceived environmental health risk. The findings indicate that an individual's health status and educational level were significant predictors of psychosocial responses.

A comparative study of substance use before and after establishing HIV infection status among people living with HIV/AIDS.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if significant differences exist in substance use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) before and after establishing their HIV infection status. METHOD: The study participants are HIV positive clients of a community based HIV/AIDS outreach facility located in Montgomery, Alabama. The questionnaire includes demographics, substance use and risky sexual behaviors pertaining to HIV transmission. Each participant completed an anonymous questionnaire. A total of 341 questionnaires were distributed and 326 were fully completed and returned, representing a response rate of 96%. RESULTS: Findings revealed a statistically significant difference in alcohol consumption before sex among PLWHA before and after establishing their HIV infection status (p = .001). No significant differences were observed among participants who reported as having used drugs intravenously (p = .89), and among those sharing the same syringe/needle with another person (p = .87) before and after establishing their HIV infection status. CONCLUSION: There is continued substance use and alcohol consumption before sex among PLWHA after establishing their HIV status despite clear evidence of such risky behaviors that could lead to an increase in exposure to HIV.

Increasing prostate cancer screening among African American men.

The study evaluates the impact of prostate cancer education on screening rates among African American men in rural Black Belt counties in Alabama. The goal of the study is to promote screening behavior in African American men. The objectives were: 1) to identify enablers and barriers to screening; 2) to develop and test the effectiveness of an education intervention; and 3) to determine the impact of the intervention on prostate cancer screening rates through follow-up survey. The study followed a quasi-experimental three-phase design: 1) focus group, 2) education intervention, and 3) follow-up. Focus groups (N = 76) indicate men are reluctant to talk about their health with anyone. Analysis of pre-test and post-test paired t-test indicate a significant increase in knowledge and awareness of prostate cancer (85%). Follow-up survey results indicate that 48% (N = 105) of the participants who had not been screened within the last 12 months were screened after attending the education session.

Applying the epidemiologic problem oriented approach (EPOA) methodology in developing a knowledge base for the modeling of HIV/AIDS.

INTRODUCTION: In the epidemiologic modeling of diseases, the epidemiologic problem oriented approach (EPOA) methodology facilitates the development of systematic and structured knowledge bases, which are crucial for development of models. A detailed understanding of the epidemiology of a given disease provides the essential framework for model development and enables the laying out of the comprehensive and fundamental structures for the models. OBJECTIVE: To develop such a knowledge base for developing HIV/AIDS models. METHODS: The EPOA methodology was utilized to develop the knowledge base for HIV/AIDS; it is composed of six pillars within two triads: the Problem Identification/Characterization and the Problem Management/Solution/Mitigation Triads, interlinked by the diagnostic procedure. RESULTS: Using information from various sources, the triads are decomposed into their respective pillar variables and parameters. The agent pillar identifies the causative agent (HIV) and its characteristics. The host pillar identifies and characterizes the host (human). The environment pillar characterizes the physical, biological and socioeconomic environments for both the host and agent. The therapeutics/treatment pillar considers the treatment options for HIV/AIDS. The prevention/control pillar considers prevention and control measures. The health maintenance/health promotion pillar considers measures for the health maintenance of the population. CONCLUSION: Models for HIV/AIDS can be conceptual, in vivo or in vitro, systems analysis, mathematical, or computational just to name a few. The knowledge base developed using the EPOA methodology provides a well-organized structured source of information, which is used in the variable and parameter estimations as well as analysis (biological, mathematical, statistical and computer simulations), which are crucial in epidemiologic modeling of HIV/AIDS. EPOA methodology has become an important tool in the development of models that can enlighten decision making in public health.

Assessing HIV/AIDS intervention strategies using an integrative macro-micro level computational epidemiologic modeling approach.

INTRODUCTION: Epidemiologic research involves the study of a complex set of host, environmental and causative agent factors as they interact to impact health and diseases in any population. The most advanced of these efforts have focused on micro (cellular) or macro (human) population level studies but lacked the integrative framework as presented in this article. Modeling the cumulative impact of HIV/AIDS at the cellular, molecular, and individual behaviors at the population-level can be complex. The main objective of our research is to develop a macro-micro level computational epidemiologic model that integrates the dynamic interplay of HIV/AIDS at the cellular and molecular level (micro-epidemiologic modeling), and the dynamic interplay of multifactorial determinants: biomedical, behavioral, and socioeconomic factors at the human population level (macro-epidemiologic modeling). METHODS: The computational epidemiologic model was constructed using systems dynamics modeling methodology. The dynamics of the relationships was described by means of ordinary/partial differential equations. All state equations in the model were approximated using the Runge-Kutta 4th order numerical approximation method. RESULTS: Computational tools and mathematical approaches that integrate models from micro to macro levels in a seamless fashion have been developed to study the population-level effects of various intervention strategies on HIV/AIDS. The critical variables that facilitate transmission of HIV and intracellular interactions and molecular kinetics were examined to assess different interventions strategies. Such multilevel models are essential if we are to develop quantitative, predictive models of complex biological systems such as HIV/AIDS.

The correlation between alcohol consumption and risky sexual behaviors among people living with HIV/AIDS.

The objectives of this study were to determine if significant correlation exists between drinking any alcoholic beverage and risky sex among 326 AIDS patients. Participants completed anonymous surveys. The result of the regression and Pearson Correlation analyses revealed a significant positive correlation between drinking alcohol before sex and frequency of condom use (p < .0001). The number of sex partners respondents reported was also correlated with the frequency of alcohol use (p = .003). The result shows that the quantity of alcohol consumption was correlated with two indicators of risky sex: having multiple sexual partners (p < .0001) and having sexual intercourse without a condom (p < .001). Interventions are that integrate HIV risk reduction with alcohol risk reduction is very useful to minimize the risk of new HIV infections and/or manage existing infections.